The debate surrounding the future of global order and America's role in it is a complex and fascinating one. Personally, I believe that the current discourse, which often paints a bleak picture of the U.S.-led liberal world order, is missing the mark. It's time to challenge some assumptions and explore the implications of this narrative.
The Myth of a Dead Order
There's a growing consensus that the post-World War II liberal world order, with its U.S.-led alliances and institutions, is no more. However, this assertion is misleading. While it's true that the order has faced challenges and criticisms, it's far from dead. In fact, assuming its demise could be a dangerous self-fulfilling prophecy.
The current administration's policies, under President Donald Trump, certainly deviate from the traditional U.S. commitment to a liberal, rules-based order. But this doesn't mean the order itself is beyond repair. It's a mistake to assume that the damage inflicted by the Trump administration is irreversible.
The Benefits of U.S. Leadership
What many critics overlook is the significant role the U.S.-led order has played in maintaining global stability and prosperity. For eight decades, American hegemony has provided public goods, from open sea lanes to a stable financial system. The United States adopted a unique perspective, recognizing that its national interest was intertwined with the security, prosperity, and freedom of other nations. This perspective, in turn, encouraged global support for U.S. leadership.
Despite its flaws, the U.S.-led international system has underpinned the most stable and prosperous period in world history. Every U.S. president before Trump believed in and defended this order, and it's important to remember that their collective efforts contributed to this success.
Silver Linings
When we look at the past 80 years, it's hard to deny the benefits of U.S. global leadership. Apart from avoiding great-power wars, which is unprecedented in history, the U.S.-led order has kept sea lanes open, curbed nuclear proliferation, fostered economic prosperity, advanced democracy, and granted the United States unique global preeminence.
The period since World War II has seen a dramatic decline in major power conflicts, thanks in part to the deterrent effect of nuclear weapons and the presence of U.S. military forces and alliances. The liberal international order has also facilitated the largest expansion of global prosperity, with global GDP increasing more than tenfold and extreme poverty rates dropping significantly. Furthermore, it has promoted the greatest expansion of individual freedom and democracy the world has ever seen, with a majority of states becoming democracies by the 1990s.
The Risks of Abandoning Leadership
Critics on both sides of the political spectrum have harshly criticized the U.S.-led order, with some believing it has been an unsustainable drain on American resources. However, the facts don't support this assumption. The United States remains a global economic powerhouse, with a GDP that dwarfs that of other wealthy countries. Its military power is unparalleled, and its technology companies dominate global markets.
The risks of a world without a strong United States committed to allies, rules, and norms are significant. The cost of aggression would likely decrease, leading to a higher risk of major conflicts. The closure of key waterways, for instance, would have devastating economic consequences, costing Americans and the global economy trillions of dollars.
The potential for further nuclear proliferation is also a concern. With mounting questions about U.S. security commitments, countries like South Korea, Poland, and Saudi Arabia are considering developing their own nuclear arsenals.
A Case for Reform, Not Retreat
Rather than accepting the premise that the U.S.-led order is dead, the next president should focus on reforming and revitalizing it. This includes proposing a new bargain with allies, addressing legitimate concerns about unfair burdens, and making alliances politically sustainable in Washington.
A renewed U.S. alliance system should be updated to address the global challenges of the 21st century, from great-power competition to climate change. The next president must also demonstrate respect for rules, norms, and institutions, and address global economic imbalances and inequities.
The United States should exercise greater humility and discretion in its use of military power, focusing on deterrence rather than regime change. By doing so, it can regain the trust and enthusiasm of its allies, who are eager for a return to responsible U.S. leadership.
Conclusion
The U.S.-led world order is not without its flaws, but it has brought about an unprecedented era of global stability and prosperity. While it's important to acknowledge its shortcomings and work towards reform, completely abandoning it would be a reckless gamble. As Americans consider their future role in the world, they should remember the benefits of U.S. leadership and the risks associated with retreat.
